NHC is likely to call TD4 in just a little while. Recon data supports the upgrade to at least a depression, maybe a storm named Don. He’s headed for Texas.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM
COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA…AND IF IT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A
CIRCULATION…ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…NEAR 100 PERCENT..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
The past few days have seen fabulous storms blow up over most of the East Coast Metro (see the pics!) These storms have been moderately active electrically and contained a significant amount of rain. There was a classic gust front blow through on Tuesday over Tamarac prior to a massive precip event. Both Tuesday and Wednesday had storms that generated a nice wall cloud (no real rotation but very convectively active) with a tail.
I’m watching a wave in the central Atlantic that has some varied model support. Its embedded in a very nic plume of moisture, the MIMIC-TPW signature of the wave is very strong, and if this were September, we’d already have a CAT2 cane coming across. However as its still July – the upper environment is not quite ther yet, and the SST’s, while warm, just aren’t as strong as they need to be to develop. This wave is progged to come across the Leewards, into bahamas, and then perhaps across South FL. Several (fantasyland) model runs showed the Katrina solution across SFL (that is exist as a wave for a very long time, generate into a TS over the Bahamas, and get pushed back WSW across SFL as a strengthening hurricane. I’m praying this solution does not come to fruition, as its still too early for this!
Tropical Depression 2 forms off Canaveral. Models have been hinting at something forming between JAX and SC for a week, and today confirms it. Hurricane Hunters found 30 kt winds and a closed LLC just now and the NHC classified as the second system of 2011. The system is weak but organizing slowly. Its drifting SW but the front is expected to pull it out to the NE.
This past couple weeks have really been a change from the prior 3 months. We are firmly seated in the rainy season. There is however a hitch. It’s not been very wet! Rains have sprouted from the convection nearly every day, lightning and thunder aplenty. Even a couple bouts of odd summertime hail. But the totals of rainfall are disappointing. Whereas typically this time of year we see widespread immense tropical downpours, the systems are more sparse and contain less actual rain and are more localized than is typical. A look at the upper level skew-t plots shows us that the mid levels of the atmosphere have been distinctly drier than at the surface. This leads to less of a towering thunderstorm, and more of a drizzle.