Invest 91L has been teasing us with development potential for days now. Convection had been pulsing up and down, circulation centers have been bouncing around, becoming unstacked, tilted, sheared away – and yesterday while crossing Martinique, the hunters found her to have a low-level circulation. Winds are at about 45kts at flight level, so the NHC classed her at 8pm as a full-fledged storm with 40mph winds.
She will not have an easy time. She has entered the graveyard, so named because the persistent easterlies in this region have stymied, sheared apart, unstacked, and otherwise decimated even full-fledged hurricanes that enter the area west of the Lesser Antilles. Her next target appears to be Hispaniola – where the landmasses high rugged mountains are likely to disrupt her circulation. Should she survive all that – the Bahamas await. The crystal clear shallow water is like jet fuel to storms. The deeper waters near the Florida coast are bathtub warm to a significant depth fueled by the jetstream, so the only inhibitor would seem to be the upper atmosphere environment.
Emily is progged to find a weakness in the Atlantic ridge and nudge her way around it. Models have been sniffing out a recurve scenario near the eastern coast of FL for days now. The question being where the recurve occurs. Models this morning have shifted west with the BAMS showing a gulf storm, while the GFS and UKMET stay east of FL. We need more time and more model runs to hammer this track out.