The past few days have seen fabulous storms blow up over most of the East Coast Metro (see the pics!) These storms have been moderately active electrically and contained a significant amount of rain. There was a classic gust front blow through on Tuesday over Tamarac prior to a massive precip event. Both Tuesday and Wednesday had storms that generated a nice wall cloud (no real rotation but very convectively active) with a tail.
I’m watching a wave in the central Atlantic that has some varied model support. Its embedded in a very nic plume of moisture, the MIMIC-TPW signature of the wave is very strong, and if this were September, we’d already have a CAT2 cane coming across. However as its still July – the upper environment is not quite ther yet, and the SST’s, while warm, just aren’t as strong as they need to be to develop. This wave is progged to come across the Leewards, into bahamas, and then perhaps across South FL. Several (fantasyland) model runs showed the Katrina solution across SFL (that is exist as a wave for a very long time, generate into a TS over the Bahamas, and get pushed back WSW across SFL as a strengthening hurricane. I’m praying this solution does not come to fruition, as its still too early for this!