We’ve become aware of a region in the deep atlantic tropics, starting around Saturday at 8N,30W ish, which showed serious persistent convection, starting to develop in the models. A wave came along and sort of kickstarted this mess, and by Sunday, had become noticed by the NHC and NRL and other weather labs and was given the name 91L.
This morning it seems the convection is consolidating over the circulation center and its moved north a bit near 12N,35-40W ish. Models bring this under virtually no shear for the next 5 days, up to an area NE of the Leewards, SW Bahamas. From there the models are split and some have it building back the ridge over the weakness that allowed it to come so far NW, and others have it entering the weakness and recurving.
2 things: If it develops and intensifies the likelihood of it finding the weakness and scooting through it are greater. If it stays disorganized it won’t get as far north. So its also a matter of timing. We will know by Friday what this will do and until then the only thing to do is to keep an eye on it.