Alex has seemed to leave quite a stirred up mess around the gulf. We have Invest 95L in the NE gulf. It is baroclinic but has all the markings of a possible subtropical storm. Think Alicia of 2003:
The low that became Alicia formed from a mesoscale convective system that developed on the tail end of a frontal zone just offshore the central Gulf coast. The system moved around the southwest periphery of the subtropical ridge and intensified at the rate of one millibar per hour into a tropical storm on the 15th and a hurricane on the 16th. As the ridge moved eastward, Alicia turned northwest to the west of Galveston and Houston, Texas, striking the Lone State State as a category 3 hurricane.
The above quote is from NOAA’s NCEP. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/alicia1983.html
Gulf waters are cooler from upwelling, esp n of the BOC and the N tip of the Yucatan. The energy he spread around the uppers is felt today over FL with an overall cloudiness, very moist atmosphere, and the potential for heavy rain.
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACROSS S FL THIS MORNING, AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A VERY LIGHT AND NE SURFACE FLOW IS OCCURRING OVER THE AREA AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES, HOWEVER THE STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY FROM THE SW. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS ALSO OCCURRING AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE GULF. ALL THIS TOGETHER AND IT SPELLS A VERY WET DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RN. CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN MAY HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEABREEZE, HOWEVER CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO COVER MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEREFORE BUMPED THE POPS TO 80% AREA WIDE.
Numbers for today:
- CAPE 1500
- LI -3.2
- PWATS 2.19
OP40 predicts a CAPE of 3700 by 1900 today, so with the high PWATS, SW steering flow and light NE winds at the surface (shear!) give us a very high chance for rain today.