Today and tomorrow should be very interesting! The vigorous Invest 92L which caused a stir last week, will pass by south FL very soon. The NRL and NHC have dropped the Invest, but the wave continues west. The remnants of the wave are located in a line from the keys down through Cuba.
This morning saw scattered storms come off the ocean on the somewhat stronger than typical Easterlies.
Today’s numbers support t-storm development. CAPE over 2000 (2500-3000), LI of -7, L57 of 6.4, and no obvious subsidence. PWATS near 2 inches. We have surface southeasterly flow, at about 10kts.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1040 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2010 .UPDATE...UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS OVER THE EASTERN COASTAL AND METRO AREAS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE BAHAMAS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. EXPECT THIS AIRMASS TO REACH AT LEAST ERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...12Z SOUNDING INDICATED SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST FLOW. THIS EAST FLOW WILL ALSO STEER ANY INCIPIENT SHOWER/STORM FURTHER INLAND BEFORE THEY HAVE TIME TO FULLY DEVELOP KEEPING THE ERN METRO/COASTAL AREAS UNDER ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN OCCUR WITH ANY STORM...LOWER PWAT VALUE (1.72 INCHES) AND FASTER STORM MOTION THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS, SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY A SLIGHT RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.