Invest 92L is declared. This happened Sat afternoon at 5pm. She developed off a vigorous wave that came from Africa about 2 days back. Typical MDR cane, but WAY too early for this! We should have had a home grown system or 2 by now, we had a single invest 90L that sort of meandered, now this guy looks fairly well-structured for being so early in the season.
As seen in the linked photos, the storm has a tough road ahead. 50kt building shear to the NW. Also the ridge in place over the gulf coast states is progged to retrograde NW to the southern Rockies by the end of the week. This allows for some troughiness to pull into the FL area. This will only serve to pull up any developing storm. There remains to be seen if any ridging will appear across the basin. If this storm develops, it is going fishing. I don’t see anything that can keep it in the Carribean. If she stays very weak she’ll hit SA and maybe end up in the E pacific.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE NNNN