2 June 2010

Today’s CAPE is 2100.  LI is -4 and PWATS is around 1.7. 500mb temp is -7C.  I see southwest surface winds  which should only fuel this mix.  Steering is the only question and I look to the AFD for help.

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REASONING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED...AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS SOLUTIONS. IN THE NEAR TERM...TODAY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT WILL OCCUR. AFTERNOON TSTMS WERE
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY...LIKELY DUE TO WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AND LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
PASSING JUST SE OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE TOOK THE BEST DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE OFF TO THE E WITH IT. RATHER THAN TODAY BEING A FAIRLY WET
DAY AS IT APPEARED EARLIER IN THE WEEK IT NOW SEEMS THAT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF NORMAL SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES UNTIL VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF APPROACHES. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM LAYER NO COLDER THAN -6C AROUND 500MB AND
SOME HINTS OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS...ALL LEADING ME
TO BELIEVE THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. WRLY STEERING FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW
STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZES OVER THE INTERIOR TO DRIFT
BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIE DOWN BY MID
EVENING...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.
Looks like subsidence is the enemy today.
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About browardwx

Weather nut.
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