Today’s PWATS on the 12Z sounding out of miami is 1.55. Fairly moist! The CAPE is at 1067, which should absolutely generate convection once the seabreeze rolls in. The question is when/if the seabreeze develops.
The cap advertised in the AFD is likely to get blown sometime this afternoon. Heating is quite strong and a LOT of moisture is out there.
THE MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SLIGHTLY COOL AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE PWATS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND ARE IN AN INCREASING TREND FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. THESE FACTORS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...HOWEVER...IS SUCH THAT IT COULD FAVOR SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION.
We’ll see soon enough!