This NE flow at the surface has got to go. Some really good storms have popped SW of Naples in the gulf. We have a nice strong high level NW wind to shear the top end of the T-storms, if only the surface wind would calm down. I suppose its only May still, and just the very very beginning of the rainy season, so I shouldn’t be discouraged.
Synoptically speaking we appear to be in transition. The midsection of the country seems to have a nice trough run right through it from Texas to the Dakota’s. The AFD mentions a high in Canada (quebec) that ought to influence 90L to move slowly towards NC. This will bring moisture into the area, and move the flow around enough to allow more of a chance for East coast storms. We’ll see what the AFD says tomorrow and the 12Z sounding will tell for sure. There had been a marked dryness in the mid to upper levels.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE...CURRENTLY CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS...AND WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO FLOW ALOFT EXPECT NOCTURNAL SHOWER THREAT TO BE VERY LIMITED ALONG THE EAST COAST. WITH LAND BREEZE FORMATION LIKELY...WILL ALSO FORECAST TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AS HAS BEEN NOTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...A MORE ACTIVE DAY OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TOMORROW...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE /PWATS RISING TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA/ TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN BOTH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE... AND WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT... EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE MIAMI/FORT LAUDERDALE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY MID- EVENING... WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.