This week might just herald the rainy seasons start. Here in South FL that date is typically when the dewpoint remains above 70F, and convective seabreeze storms are a daily occurrence.
By this morning, the dewpoint has remained above 70F since noon on 15 May. We’ve had convective seabreeze influenced storms both yesterday and the day before. Today the forecast is no different.
3 consecutive days of 70+ dewpoints. We hit 72 hours at noon today.
Daily rain – yes.
I’ll move on to the synoptics.
We had a shortwave trough stir up deep layer moisture from the gulf and western Caribbean yesterday. It has since moved off, but the moisture remains.
NWS AFD talks about stability returning to the region by Thursday as ridging over the MS valley changes the wind flow to be from the NW. This will tend to dry us out, but with any luck the DP will stay up there and we can have an on-time rainy season! This is important. I do not want to test the Lushine theory!
Today’s satellite derived sounding shows a CAPE of 1430, LI of -1. We’ve got less instability than yesterday’s peak but as the day moves on with such a high dewpoint, PWATS up around 1.8″ and no subsidence we’ll see t-storms.